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The New Bully on the Block

By Giovanni Hobbins Posted: 11/23/2009
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Last Tuesday, as part of a nine-day visit to Asia, President Obama met with China’s leader, Hu Jintao. The president made use of his administration’s “reset” button following the rocky Sino-American relations characteristic of former presidencies.

Yet this would prove a minor detail during the talks as many sensitive issues were slated for discussion. The meeting’s atmosphere immediately presented a dauntingly stark contrast against Western styles of diplomacy. Obama requested a town hall meeting with students and free-flowing discussion that was to be broadcasted live on China’s major networks. Instead, he got a smaller venue, a select group of students who had allegedly undergone “training” beforehand and a censored broadcast barely available online. There was no question that the rules had changed.

Obama originally landed in Shanghai, China’s glitzy, modern megalopolis and shining beacon of prosperity. By now, China’s profile as an economic superpower and rising global influence is common knowledge. Its rich history is full of emblematic figures and dynastic lore but lately, it’s become a distinctly modern symbol of take-no-prisoners style economic crusading. Since the Open Door Policy at the turn of the century, China has slowly become an international trade force to be reckoned with. And now, as the recession’s deep-seated pain really sets in, China’s leverage as a global authority cannot be doubted.

Unlike past years, the subject of this year’s talks did not center on human rights and the forced modernization of Chinese society. The roles have reversed. China is, now more than ever, a figure of immense power and no longer easily bullied. Obama asked for China’s global responsibility in dealing with climate change, nuclear proliferation and assistance in war-torn Myanmar and Sudan. But the Chinese have not made a habit of global boy-scouting. Instead, foreign affairs revolve around business. China has made huge natural resource investments in Africa and South America, employing “check book diplomacy” in the face of Western humanitarian peacekeeping. Former Chinese foreign ministry official Victor Zhikai Gao stated, “China’s foreign policy is underlined by the principle of non-interference in each other’s internal affairs.” Recent increases in military expenditure have caused speculation, but Chinese officials contend that the military’s only utility is domestic and defense related.

But China’s greatest power is not in its 2-million man army. Recent figures indicate China holds nearly $1 trillion in U.S. debt and more than $2 trillion in total foreign currency holdings. What’s more, China has proven astoundingly resilient towards the global recession. Despite sharp drops and stagnations last year, the Chinese economy is expected to grow by 8 percent, accounting for most of this year’s world economic growth. China had hoped to use Obama’s visit to discuss the weakening dollar as many of its largest investments are in dollar assets. Predictably, mediation on the subject broke down as each country’s diplomatic priorities clashed. This won’t matter however, as China is expected to exceed Germany as the world’s biggest exporter, posting a trade surplus of $200 billion. China understands that economic power trumps all, especially in the long run.

As America spends itself into bankruptcy, China produces and invests. As Americans consume and guzzle, the Chinese work and save. For the last decade, each culture’s differences have granted both countries the perfect economic partnership. China would export its goods and services, while the United States would voraciously make use of both. Some coined the fiscal marriage “Chimerica,” and until now, the union has ensured peace in our time. But is the marriage destined to last?

Obama’s talks were, as expected, rather uneventful. For now, Chinese-American relations are a zero-sum game. But if appearances indicate anything, the nations are headed in opposite directions. While the United States is heading into ridiculous deficit and in real danger of recessional “double-dip,” many estimate that China’s economy will surpass all others by 2025. The Chinese like to emphasize an obvious per capita disparity and relative poverty, but history has shown that superpowers come in many political modes (extreme and moderate) and economic backgrounds (communist and capitalist).

So far, “Chimerica” has both fueled global economy and ensured war-fearing interdependency. But many analysts say China’s explosive economy will soon no longer be dependent on its gigantic exports. In addition, China’s supremacy may cause an eventual shift in international currency from the dollar to the renminbi, affording China maximal economic leverage and eliminating America’s ability to limitlessly borrow from the global savings “glut.” With some time, China is fully capable of detaching itself and become a global player of the likes history has yet to witness. The new bully on the block will be an iconoclastic superpower: introspective, thrifty, cunning and less likely to stomp the earth assimilating savages.

Giovanni Hobbins is a College freshman from Lomira, Wisc.

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