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The special election in an upstate New York congressional district kept me up late on Tuesday night. In preliminary results, voters in New York’s 23rd District elected Democrat Bill Owens by less than 4,000 votes. In a dramatic campaign with a surprise twist last weekend, Owens defeated Doug Hoffman of the Conservative Party. Hoffman promptly congratulated Owens on his victory.
Republicans reigned supreme in this sprawling district, which encompasses the pristine Adirondack Mountains, since the nineteenth century’s Gilded Age. Joining Vermont and Maine, the area remained a rare holdout to President Franklin Delano Roosevelt and his New Deal. Simply put, a Democratic congressional victory in Plattsburgh, Watertown and Oneida is big news.
Near the conclusion of the special election campaign, Republican Dede Scozzafava withdrew her candidacy and endorsed the Democrat. Scozzafava, a social moderate serving in the State Assembly, garnered criticism from prominent Republican activists such as Sarah Palin and Glenn Beck. While Scozzafava received the backing of the official Republican establishment, some Republicans questioned her conservative credentials. They encouraged support for Hoffman.
The Democratic pick-up in a historically Republican-friendly area concludes a decade of shifting voting patterns in New York State as well as New England and the Mid-Atlantic regions. After the 2000 election, New York retained 31 seats in the House of Representatives during the 107th Congress. Democrats held a comfortable majority with 19 of the districts.
The 2000 Census reapportioned two districts away from New York — a Republican and a Democrat each retired when their districts were eliminated. Even with the net loss of districts, Democrats now hold 27 of New York’s 29 seats after Owens’ victory on Tuesday.
The Democratic victories this decade leave Republicans in just two districts in the entire state. Among other large states such as California, Texas and Florida, no party faces such a lopsided congressional delegation. Republicans maintain representatives only in a portion of Long Island and the Buffalo and Rochester suburbs.
The stunning gain of eight seats throughout New York State demonstrates a noteworthy expansion of the Democratic base beyond the friendly confines of New York City. The declining popularity of the Republican brand helped Democrats picked up swing seats in the New York suburbs and Staten Island. But the bulk of the advances came from Democratic inroads upstate.
Moderate Democrats such as Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand waged bruising campaigns against Republican incumbents. Gillibrand, a natural campaigner, snatched a traditionally Republican district in the heart of the Hudson Valley from John Sweeney in 2006. She won re-election last year and appointment to Hillary Clinton’s vacant Senate seat in January. Her rapid rise to national prominence underscores her unique appeal to a largely unrepresented electorate.
Some upstate voters frequently express their skepticism to Democratic candidates because of New York City’s traditional dominance in state politics. Gillibrand and others promised to prioritize their district above House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s agenda or the influential interests of New York City. Gillibrand backed gun rights, traditionally anathema to Democrats but largely popular in the Hudson Valley. The cadre of new Democrats competing in elections elsewhere in the state advocated a distinctly different political philosophy than that of a New York City urban politician.
Since 2000, other states in the region have also shown a similar trend. New Hampshire voted out two Republican congressmen in favor of two Democrats. Likewise, Republican congressional losses in New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Michigan and Ohio commonly led to generalizations that the modern Republican Party increasingly thrives only in the South.
Republican party members, however, continue to win elections outside the South. The round of elections on Tuesday brought two gubernatorial victories the Republicans’ way. Virginia and New Jersey, the two states that hold off-year gubernatorial contests, traditionally vote against the party in the White House. During the Bush administration, Democrats swept the two races in 2001 and 2005. Similarly, the Republicans bested the Democrats during the Clinton year elections of 1993 and 1997.
The Republican governors who take office in Richmond, Va., and Trenton, N.J., will help reinvigorate the Republican faithful ahead of the 2010 midterm elections. The party controlling the White House typically loses seats in its first midterm, but the Democratic victory in New York’s 23rd District should give pause to those who predict a Republican tidal wave.
Democrats may yet control the upstate Adirondack district until the 22nd century or the next Gilded Age. It remains to be seen, however, which will come first.
Stanton Abramson is a College senior from Raleigh, N.C. He is president of the Young Democrats of Emory.
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