Windows 7 was released to the public yesterday and, at the risk of exposing myself as a computer nerd, I’ll admit that I was excited. For months, small bits of information about the new operating system were leaked to the public and favorable reviews of the new software began to crop up all over the Internet. The message was clear: Microsoft had created a product that could rise out of the ashes of Windows Vista and re-establish Windows’ past glory. The common consensus seemed to fly in the face of various critics who have been writing Windows’ epitaph for years and branding Microsoft’s lack of innovation as an oncoming disaster for the company. Windows 7 shows that people shouldn’t be too quick to make sweeping predictions.

While I am a computer buff who is interested in reading about the newest technology and innovations, I am surprisingly loyal to brands when it comes time to make decisions. I have been playing Nintendo video game systems for as long as I can remember and even when the company released unpopular systems that many considered to be inferior to their competition (read: the Nintendo Gamecube), I remained adamantly loyal.

The same is true of my computer preferences. Instead of going with the trend of “downgrading” from Windows Vista to Windows XP, I chose the more complex and tiresome path, switching out hardware and fiddling with my settings in order to run Vista at an acceptable speed.

In my stubbornness, however, I have been able to track companies’ ability to innovate. After enduring taunts from friends about the Gamecube, Nintendo loyalists like myself were presented with the Nintendo Wii. Redefining how games are supposed to be played and broadening their appeal to new demographics, the Wii has arguably been one of the greatest innovations in gaming history. The system also boosted Nintendo back to the top of the tables in terms of popularity and sales. The Nintendo example combined with Windows 7’s favorable reviews seems to point to the fact that in times of crisis, companies are forced to innovate and usually deliver better products.

Nevertheless, critics and consumers seem quick to assume the role of futurologist, offering largely unsubstantiated predictions of companies’ downfalls. A recent BBC article on the release of Windows 7 offers a good example. The article begins by describing how Microsoft seemed to defy the critics with the release of Windows 7, recognizing the fact that people’s perception of Microsoft as lacking innovation was premature.

The article concludes, however, by proposing that Windows 7 “might end up being its most, but also its last, successful operating system.” In an industry that thrives on dynamism, it surprises me how willing people are to make predictions of outcomes that are nearly half a decade on the horizon.

In a world that has been rocked by a global economic downturn that few people foresaw, I believe it’s time for us to realize that our long-term predictions don’t take into account the simple fact that things change unpredictably. British Prime Minister Harold Macmillan put it well when, in response to a question about what he foresaw as his greatest challenge, he proclaimed: “Events, my dear boy, events.” You need look no further than President Obama’s current opinion polls to understand how events can quickly overturn predictions of long-term prosperity.

Luckily, the opposite is true in the case of Windows. Instead of deleterious events, innovation has taken place and lead to a better reality for consumers. In spite of what trendy Mac commercials may imply, adaptation to changing consumer demands isn’t reserved for some companies and not others. Hopefully Windows 7 will demonstrate the pervasiveness of innovation and prove, once again, that nobody can actually predict the future.

Aaron Collett is a College junior from Jakarta, Indonesia. He is president of Emory’s Model United Nations.